You have to wonder where bears will get their ammo going forward with all this pessimism. This website's page is actually quite amazing in its complete lack of bullishness: Link
Don't get me wrong, there is huge risk with CPI tomorrow and after big rallies like today, there is often some selling even in a bull market. But you have take media sentiment into account. It tells you how much of the bad news or good news is priced in. Right now, even though QQQQ and SMH closed above their respective 50 day moving averages for the first time since early May, the pundits keep scaring us away. That is the exact definition of a wall of worry: pessimism in the face of improving technicals. I remember how the media was telling everyone to buy in 2000 when the bottom started falling out. I'm not getting the same feedback this time around. Personally, I will wait to see if this rally fails before jumping to bearish conclusion. It's pretty cut and dry: QQQQ needs to hold the 50 dma at 37.37 and semis will be the canary in the mine. Pre-open, it will be NQ at 1532 and the numbers for gold I gave you in the last post. Could we fall apart tomorrow? Absolutely. Could we hold ground? Yes. Price is what matters now, nothing else.
Don't get me wrong, there is huge risk with CPI tomorrow and after big rallies like today, there is often some selling even in a bull market. But you have take media sentiment into account. It tells you how much of the bad news or good news is priced in. Right now, even though QQQQ and SMH closed above their respective 50 day moving averages for the first time since early May, the pundits keep scaring us away. That is the exact definition of a wall of worry: pessimism in the face of improving technicals. I remember how the media was telling everyone to buy in 2000 when the bottom started falling out. I'm not getting the same feedback this time around. Personally, I will wait to see if this rally fails before jumping to bearish conclusion. It's pretty cut and dry: QQQQ needs to hold the 50 dma at 37.37 and semis will be the canary in the mine. Pre-open, it will be NQ at 1532 and the numbers for gold I gave you in the last post. Could we fall apart tomorrow? Absolutely. Could we hold ground? Yes. Price is what matters now, nothing else.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, August 15, 2006 at 6:35 PM.
